Despite nat’l lead by Liberals, Chilliwack MP Strahl still in the driver’s seat heading into tonight’s debate
CHILLIWACK — While multiple pollsters have the federal Liberals in front of the Conservatives by single digits, Chilliwack-Hope MP Mark Strahl still has the edge ahead of tonight’s all-candidates debate in Chilliwack.
how that plays out in Chilliwack-Hope and the rest of the Fraser Valley is a completely different story.
Nationally, every major pollster now has the Liberals leading by at least three points, according to CBC’s Poll Tracker. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are currently tracking to lose significant seats.
Closer to home, Eric Grenier of The Writ suggests Strahl’s seat is “safe”, meaning he has a very high likelihood of winning the seat. Only a profound error in the polls, the projection model or a very powerful local dynamic would give a competitor a chance of winning the riding, Grenier reports. Similarly, 338 Canada says Chilliwack-Hope is a CPC “likely” seat as Strahl holds about a 12-point lead, 49-37, as he and five other candidates head into tonight’s all-candidates debate from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at Cowork Chilliwack. The debate will be broadcast online through the Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce’s website.
The six candidates vying for Chilliwack-Hope include Strahl, Liberal candidate Zeeshan Khan, Green Party candidate Salina Derish, People’s Party of Candidate Jeff Galbraith, United Party of Canada Chris Adam, and NDP candidate Teri Westerby, an SD33 trustee. Strahl, Westerby and Galbraith have multiple yard signs around town, with Strahl’s being the most easily visible due to their sheer abundance. Khan’s signs have not shown up at major intersections quite like those from Strahl and Westerby.
Over in Mission-Matsqui-Abbotsford, The Writ says incumbent MP Brad Vis’ seat is safe, but 338 Canada suggests the race is tight between him and lawyer Jeff Howe, the Liberal Party candidate, with Vis leading by only four points, 48-44.
Image: Brad Vis / MP Brad Vis hopes to retain his seat in the newly redrawn Mission-Matsqui-Abbotsford riding.While Strahl’s seat seems like a safer bet for the Conservatives, things are a bit more tenuous in Abbotsford-South Langley. The Writ says the seat leans Conservative, but it’s possible the Liberal candidate, former news reporter Kevin Gillies could win. 338 Canada says the seat is a toss-up and actually has the Liberals up by a single point. The Conservative candidate is Sukhdeep Gill, a 25-year-old businessman who grew up on – and started managing – his family’s local blueberry farm while pursuing a degree in business administration.